(Side note1: One thing I've noticed with all these winter wx events over the SP is the superb handling by the GFS and lack thereof by the NAM, suspicious its not from the NCEP upgrade last month)
(Side note2: wish blogger could put pics side by side but oh well)
By 12z the GF already has us experiencing frozen precip while EURO is still all liquid
Finally by mid day its all frozen
Will post another update on this in 24 hrs
UPDATE 3/2 3:14a
Confidence remains quite low with the evolution and impacts of the midweek system. Models are struggling mightily even just 54 hours out, however, it appears a high impacts event appears somewhat low though as we know it doesn't take much accumulation of any ptype to cause major issues. The GFS is the only one I'd trust right now cause it's the only one that has been consistent thru the process. Other models, i.e. NAM/EURO maintain a warm sector thermal profile through 12z Wed and I just don't understand how thats poss with a polar front. Just by its nature alone that thing is going to come and there aint nothing thats going to stop it. Id certainly hate to be an official met having to issue forecasts to clients or whatever bc going strictly with the GFS means putting all eggs in one basket and forecasting a worst-case scenario but attm I can't see doing anything else just by the nature of the cold air thats coming. All one has to do is look up north tonight and see how dense the air is. That being said I will leave you with the WPC ice prob outlook.